On December 15, important Chinese economicdata was published, a close reading of which can give us a better look at thecurrent status of the country's economy. With the containment of COVID-19,China's economic situation is now improving. Solid growth by the world's secondlargest economy can become a strong cornerstone for the world economy amid theglobal campaign against the pandemic. As the COVID-19 pandemic was successfullycontained in China in the first two to three months of its outbreak, and veryfew newly infected cases have been discovered ever since, China's industrialsector has obtained a strong growth rate in the first 11 months of this year. According to China's National Bureau ofStatistics (NBS), after the deduction of the inflation factor, China'svalue-added industrial output grew by 7 percent over a year ago this November.Taking all 11 months of 2020 together, this output increased by 2.3 percentover a year ago. In fact, the growth of China's industrialsector came right after COVID-19 was contained around April this year. For thefirst two months, the industrial value-added output, after the deduction of theinflation factor, fell by 13.5 percent compared with a year ago. This data haspicked up since April, which saw a growth of 3.9 percent and most recentlystayed steady at a 7 percent growth rate. While the industrial sector is solid, theinvestment expectation in China is also returning. Unlike industrialvalue-added data, fixed-asset investment data usually lags after economicrecovery as investors need more confidence to make fixed-asset investments,which usually last for years. For the first 11 months of 2020, China's totalvalue of fixed-asset investments reached 49.9 trillion yuan ($7.63 trillion),or 2.6 percent more than a year ago. Meanwhile, China's consumer price growthrate fell below zero for the first time since 2009. In November 2020, thegrowth rate of China's CPI was -0.5% compared with a year ago. The reduction of China's consumer pricewill give more maneuvering space for China's central bank, i.e., the PBOC, asit can now inject more liquidity into the open market and the economy withoutworrying about stirring up another round of inflation that might cause chaos insociety. As the price for consumption goods hasreduced compared with a year ago, Chinese people are now shopping more and moreonline. Online shopping in this country has grown from a very small sector 20years ago to a very dominant consumption sector in 2020. According to the NBS, although China'soverall consumption fell by 4.8 percent in the first 11 months of 2020 comparedwith a year ago, online shopping has increased by 11.5 percent year-on-year.The total amount of online shopping has reached 10.5 trillion yuan ($1.6trillion), or around 25 percent of total consumption. There are many reasons behind the rapidgrowth of online shopping. Firstly, as a new and more efficient shoppingmethod, online shopping has been able to provide customers with a bettershopping option. Internet customers can find more choices and cheaper prices.Meanwhile, the shopping procedure is more convenient and user-friendly. Secondly, the pandemic itself triggered arising demand for online shopping, as it reduces the possibility of catching aninfectious disease. As both the industrial sector and the consumption sectorare remaining solid and obtained a certain degree of growth in 2020, theemployment situation in China is stable. In the first 11 months of the year, Chinasaw 11 million new jobs created in its cities and towns. Meanwhile, in urbanareas, the unemployment rate in November was 5.2 percent, 0.1 percent lower thanOctober. China generated 6.8 percent moreelectricity this November compared to a year ago, proving the solid growth ofthe country's economy as both the industrial sector and consumption sector requirelarge usage of electricity. Finally, for the moment, the most promisingsector of the Chinese economy is international trade. According to China's General Administrationof Customers, international trade increased by 7.8 percent this Novembercompared to a year ago if measured by yuan and 21 percent if measured by USD. By successfully containing COVID-19, thestrong Chinese economy is now providing the world strengthened support. Chinais expected to lead the global economic recovery next year, with major economicorganizations and economists projecting a robust performance by China's economyand foreign businesses remaining committed to the Chinese market. With the country having adopted effectivemeasures to put the COVID-19 pandemic under control and its economy continuingto bounce back in recent months, the organizations and economists haveexpressed confidence in a stronger economic performance from China, which willinject key momentum into the global recovery and growth next year. On Friday, a meeting of the PoliticalBureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, the Party's coreleadership, underlined the need to maintain economic growth within a reasonablerange, adhere to the strategy of expanding domestic demand and pursue a higherlevel of opening-up. "China, which started recoveringearlier, is projected to grow strongly, accounting for over one-third of worldeconomic growth in 2021," said Laurence Boone, chief economist at theOrganization for Economic Cooperation and Development, at the release of theorganization's Economic Outlook earlier this month. "A solid recovery is expected tocontinue in China, with GDP growth projected to be around 8 percent in 2021 and5 percent in 2022," the organization said in the report. It added thatChina's strong recovery will help global GDP return to pre-crisis levels by theend of next year. "The recovery in industrial production in China has alsoboosted demand for many raw materials in commodity exporting economies,particularly metals." It said that China's policymakers are nowwithdrawing its monetary stimulus, which was needed during the outbreak, as theeconomic recovery has gained momentum in recent months. The National Bureau ofStatistics said that China's growth in industrial value added increased by 7percent year-on-year in November, from 6.9 percent in October. Retail sales, akey gauge of consumption, was up by 5 percent year-on-year, the fastest levelof the year, the bureau said. The inflow of foreign investment to Chinagrew by 6.3 percent year-on-year to 899.38 billion yuan ($137.7 billion)between January and November, according to the Ministry of Commerce. The OECDprojected that China's fiscal policy will remain supportive, with a number oftax cuts and extensions of social benefits promoting consumption amid weak consumerconfidence. However, the organization said that moreambitious structural reforms in social protection, and a more equitableprovision of public services, are needed for consumption to rebound. Lu Ting,chief China economist at Japanese brokerage Nomura Securities, said a reboundof global demand will enable China's exports to maintain a high rate of growth,underpinning the growth of the economy. "There is a great chance that vaccineswill be used on a large scale globally, which will greatly ease the impact ofthe pandemic. During this process, we believe a global economic recovery is onthe horizon," he said. Fitch Ratings, a global credit ratingagency, forecast in a research document early this month that China's economicrecovery will be increasingly well-balanced in 2021, after successfulcontainment of the coronavirus, and with many activity indicators now atpre-pandemic levels. Fitch also predicted improved growthoutlooks in the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan,saying that economic activity in these markets will be supported by strongergrowth on the Chinese mainland, which will provide a boost to exports and,potentially, a partial recovery in tourism through restricted travel bubbles. Louis Kuijs, head of Asia Economics atOxford Economics, a British think tank, said that he expects spending byChina's private sector to step up in 2021, while policy support retreats as thecountry's economic recovery matures. "We expect China's growth to rotate in2021, with momentum picking up in household consumption and corporateinvestment, while investment in infrastructure and, to a lesser extent, realestate, slows down," he said. Meanwhile, foreign businesses in theChinese market have remained resilient, optimistic and committed to that marketdespite disruptions from the pandemic in 2020. A survey conducted by the American Chamberof Commerce in Shanghai in November, which polled 124 United States companies,said about 82 percent of respondents had no plans to move their manufacturingfacilities offshore over the next three years. A survey of British businesses in China,conducted by the British Chamber of Commerce in China, found that 82 percent ofthe companies cited market potential as a reason to increase investment inChina in 2021. China was the No 1 priority for 39 percentof the chamber's surveyed businesses, and a second or third priority for afurther 18 percent, the chamber said in the report, which was released thismonth. "Given its size and importance to the global economy, China remainsa top investment destination for British businesses already in-market," itsaid. China announced a new, shortened version ofthe nationwide negative list for market access, a move that is expected tofurther improve the level of openness and build a transparent, efficient andfair business environment in the country, experts said. They said the move demonstrates thegovernment's firm decision to deepen reform and opening-up. It also marked akey strategy in building the new "dual-circulation" developmentparadigm, which views the domestic market as the country's economic mainstaywith domestic and foreign markets complementing each other. The updated negative list for 2020, jointlyreleased by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry ofCommerce, indicates areas where investment is prohibited or restricted; allother areas are presumed to be open. It now comprises 123 items, down from 131in the 2019 version, demonstrating the country's continued willingness to easemarket access and build an efficient, fair and unified domestic market,according to the NDRC. The new list will ease market access to anumber of sectors. "The new negative list is sending a clear signal thatChina is committed to opening more industries for all market entities,including domestic companies and foreign enterprises," said Liu Chunsheng,an associate professor of international trade at the Central University ofFinance and Economics in Beijing. "It is significant in keepingexpectations stable and stimulating market players' vitality." Liu said shortening negative lists is alsokey to building the "dual-circulation" development paradigm for thelong run. "Domestically, it will break downbarriers for fair market competition and help build a unified domestic market.Globally, it has shown the government's determination to build an open economyand foster a better business environment to attract more foreigninvestors." "With more market players competing,they will ask for high-quality government services, which may force change andreforms over the long term. Market players also need to improve the quality oftheir offerings and increase innovation to meet people's rising demand forbetter products and services." Pang Chaoran, a researcher at the ChineseAcademy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, said the shortenednegative list is in line with laws and regulations, dynamically reflectingchanges in the domestic regulatory system. "It will help to stabilize theexpectations of market entities on China's policies and yield high developmentdividends." "The negative list system for marketaccess is playing a key role in promoting the building of a high-standardmarket system," he added. "Continuously shortening the negative listwill help to relax market access in a wider range and in larger fields. It willnot only make more room for development, but also increase market competitionand innovation." Facing rising protectionism and mountingglobal uncertainties, the new move has also shown China's firm determination tofurther open its economy and deepen reforms, laying a solid foundation forfostering high-quality development in the long run, Pang said. The newlyreleased list fully implements the commitment to "one list for the wholecountry", with a reduction of 18 percent from the 2018 version, Pangadded. While in the past, there were many negativelists published by different provinces, the government has been working hard tostrengthen national list integration. During the past three years, thegovernment has canceled 23 negative lists compiled and released by local areas."To boost a strong and unified domestic market, more efforts are alsoneeded to relax market access in the fields of services and consumption,"Pang added. |

